This market will only resolve based on what the documents and files reveal, even if not all documents/files are published. Any new information from other sources is not relevant to this market. The resolution will be based solely on what is known as fact. For example, if a document states that "XY might have given Oswald information, so we stopped the investigation," this does not constitute proof that XY was involved. Only what is officially declassified will count.
Here are some general definitions for this market:
"Involved": Knowledge beforehand (not a warning that was ignored), commissioned, or helped with anything
"(CIA) members": Directly employed and agents with a long-term (>1 month) contract on November 22, 1963. Freelancers or individuals who received specific amounts of money for a job or information are excluded.
"Organizing"/"Involved in Organizing": Providing information intentionally, supplying weapons, offering purposeful assistance, helping obtain permission to go somewhere, etc.
All submissions will be resolved to my judgement, and I will likely seek input from mods in difficult cases (which may arise). I will try to close the market before the documents are published.
This market will resolve as N/A if Donald Trump (or any other Republican presidential nominee) is not elected president in 2024 and Kamala Harris (or any other Democratic nominee) does not make a statement that she will declassify the documents. It will also resolve as N/A at the end of 2025 if Trump does not publish a serious statement or provide a reason for when he will declassify the documents, or if he announces that he will not declassify them (according to my judgment).
Please make submissions as clear as possible and avoid creating edge cases or subjective suggestions (e.g., "Will XY think the reveal of the documents will bring new big insights?"). I might ask for clarification in the comments and will add it to the submission if relevant. I reserve the right to mark any submission as N/A. (To my knowledge, the Mana will be returned to those who made the submission, but there is no guarantee.)
1,000@HillaryClinton I'm sorry, I'd ask @mods to resolve this market in the best way possible. I'm not up to date at all and don't have the time to resolve this market at the moment. I'll leave it open if anyone wishes to sell their position.
@Lion @mods can we get some of the obvious ones resolved? or maybe resolve them all to the current percentage?
Obvious ones to me:
A member of the Secret Service accidentally fired a shot which hit JFK. Resolves NO
More than one shooter. Resolves NO
JFK's head just did that. Resolves NO
Lyndon B. Johnson was involved in the assassination Resolves NO
There is no evidence that the CIA as an organization was involved (individual actions by members do not count) Resolves YES
Neither the CIA or any of its members were involved in the assassination Resolves YES
@HillaryClinton I did a few of them but I have a fundamental opposition to resolving a "resolved to my judgement" market as a moderator when the creator's judgement is still available.
If Lion can't resolve these within another couple weeks, ping the mods again, I guess. But most mods are probably less informed on the subject than Lion and it may result in a lot of N/Aing.
If you can explain on a case-by-case basis why each one should resolve a certain way, some moderator may be willing to engage, but markets like this are not going to grab the attention of most moderators.
"The final accounting with the Johnson gang is imminent. Each of you who continues to partake in the actions of the Johnson gang or their German officials, the Gehlen gang, or those who disrupt the plans of American patriots against the usurper regime, will shortly pay with their lives. Be it well understood, Greetings."
Old CIA files are 90s gangster movies
@ZacParker This is the REAL conspiracy-- an act of God? Cosmic fate? The opposite of a Boltzmann brain? We may never know.