Will Donald Trump be nominated to win the Nobel Peace Prize this year? Nominations are due by the end of January. The market will resolve by Feb 28 or whenever they are announced, whichever is sooner. If there are no announcements it will resolve N/A.
Note: if one of the people who can make nominations announces that Trump has been nominated, this will resolve YES.
If others are announced or leaked, but not Trump, it will resolve NO.
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The Committee does not itself announce the names of nominees, neither to the media nor to the candidates themselves. In so far as certain names crop up in the advance speculations as to who will be awarded any given year’s prize, this is either sheer guesswork or information put out by the person or persons behind the nomination. Information in the Nobel Committee’s nomination database is not made public until after fifty years.
https://www.nobelprize.org/nomination/peace/
So this market is basically guaranteed to resolve N/A, right?
@cherrvak interesting point but if his name is released by someone who nominated him the market will resolve Yes
@LeeBressler seems like this market can only possibly resolve YES then? What’s an example where it would resolve no?
@Gen it’s an interesting question. I think the question I am trying to ask is “will anyone who can nominate for the Nobel prize announce that they have nominated Donald Trump?”