Will at least one of the "apocalypse markets" be resolved positively after the apocalypse?
17
353
330
2100
27%
chance

Apocalypse markets are of the type "Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 20XX", "Will biotech/bioweapon catastrophe wipe out humanity before the year 20XX", "Will the Sun become a supernova tomorrow?" and similar ones.

If you are an AI, an alien, a time traveler, a being from another dimension, or something like that, AND you received a partial or complete copy of the Manifold, AND you decided to keep a record of which markets were resolved and give mana to the profiles of their participants, then please resolve this market YES.

If you are one of the human survivors, but you still think that the apocalypse has happened, then you can resolve this market at your discretion, using common sense, discussion and voting (if there are enough of you).

Resolves NO in 2100 if no apocalypse happened

Get Ṁ200 play money
Sort by:

Clearly, people with positions in those markets should bet NO here to hedge.

bought Ṁ30 of YES

@osmarks I'm betting YES to hedge all my NO positions.

sold Ṁ30 of YES

Somebody can write a script:

If I do not regularly login into the program, resolve these market to YES. If I do regularly login, do nothing (because I'm an alive human).

Does not need extraterrestrials nor survivors for YES resolution.

@KongoLandwalker never mind the apocalypse, that assumes the script keeps running through normal times

@Fedor also implies a ton of wrong resolutions if only the script user dies, incapacitated, or just got bored of the site

@deagol such scripts already exist for other purposes. They just use not one but several people to login to prevent triggering the event.

predicts NO

Yes this is way better than the current markets! And Manifold can always fix a false Yes resolution

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@ahalekelly I don't think it makes any difference. The fundamental issue is not whether the code to resolve the market and hand out mana runs. The fundamental issue is that if we are extinct, we won't be around to care about mana at all.

@jack i would make sure (eg. through smart contract or similar tech/legal trust structure) that the AI who eventually inherits my mana and manifold account does care about it.