This question seeks to predict whether a spacecraft specifically designed for landing on an exoplanet will be launched by the end of the year 2040. The term "exoplanet" refers to a planet outside our solar system. The launch of such a mission would represent a groundbreaking achievement in human space exploration.π
Criteria for Resolution:
Resolution as "Yes":
An official announcement by a recognized space agency or private space company stating that a spacecraft designed to land on an exoplanet has been launched.
The launch must occur before the end of December 31, 2040.
The spacecraft's primary mission should include landing on the surface of an identified exoplanet, as opposed to merely orbiting or performing a flyby.
The announcement should be corroborated by credible sources in the space exploration community or by media coverage.
Resolution as "No":
No spacecraft designed for an exoplanet landing will be launched by any space agency or private space company by December 31, 2040.
Announcements or plans for future missions that have not yet been launched by the end of 2040 do not count towards a "Yes" resolution.
Related questions
The nearest star is proxima centaury, 4.24 light-years away.
Project Daedalus aimed to reach 12% of the speed of light (0.12c) by building a fusion reactor. Even if we ace fusion reactors, it will take 35 years to go to the proxima centaury orbit.
Another option could be building an antimatter reactor, which could reach 50% the spead of light and our spaceship could land on the hexoplanet in 8.48 years. Let's also suppose we have by that time found a way to transfer information reliably from another solar system back to Earth, without the need to actually travel back.
Also, even assuming we have all the required technology to do this by 2040, would it make sense to do it? I would spend at least a decade exploring the solar system, the various planets and the asteroids before venturing to an exoplanet.
I love this question and I would really like to vote yes, but there are too many ifs that need to be in place.
I'll vote yes if the possibility falls below 1% AND if by 2030 we have AGI, superconductors, fusion energy and widespread humanoid robots.
Several "nos":
No reason to try that in such a short timeframe (except maybe if we get ASI, but then again it might be a paperclipper who won't waste any resources announcing anything to a non-existant audience);
No tech to get there in any useful amount of time;
No reliable tech to ace a landing on the freaking Moon, let alone a completely unknown planet;
Just as importantly, even if we wanted to, and we could go that far, and we knew how to land... We wouldn't know how to brake. Getting from solar escape velocity to exoplanet orbital insertion velocity is a BIG delta-V.
I actually agree with all of your statementsπ.
However, I think it would be very interesting to see how people's expectations of the possibility of a spacecraft landing on an exoplanet change as time passes.
@Latte_Horse sure, I hear you, I just don't think it will (or should) change much with time. I have only not brought this to like 1-2% because my mana is parked elsewhere.