Will a spacecraft designed to land on an exoplanet be officially launched before the end of 2040?🚀

Question

This question seeks to predict whether a spacecraft specifically designed for landing on an exoplanet will be launched by the end of the year 2040. The term "exoplanet" refers to a planet outside our solar system. The launch of such a mission would represent a groundbreaking achievement in human space exploration.🚀

Criteria for Resolution:

Resolution as "Yes":

An official announcement by a recognized space agency or private space company stating that a spacecraft designed to land on an exoplanet has been launched.

The launch must occur before the end of December 31, 2040.

The spacecraft's primary mission should include landing on the surface of an identified exoplanet, as opposed to merely orbiting or performing a flyby.

The announcement should be corroborated by credible sources in the space exploration community or by media coverage.

Resolution as "No":

No spacecraft designed for an exoplanet landing will be launched by any space agency or private space company by December 31, 2040.

Announcements or plans for future missions that have not yet been launched by the end of 2040 do not count towards a "Yes" resolution.

(https://manifold.markets/embed/Latte_Horse/will-a-spacecraft-designed-to-land)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 10% chance (45 traders, as of Apr 23, 2026).