Which of the following East Asian nations will be involved in a new or escalated military conflict by the end of 2024?
North Korea(Democratic People's Republic of Korea)
South Korea(Republic of Korea)

The question resolves as YES to the options that correctly identify any military conflict involving the listed nations that occurred before or on December 31, 2024.

  • The market resolves to the option that correctly identifies any new or significantly escalated military conflict involving the listed nations that occur before or on December 31, 2024.

  • "New or significantly escalated military conflict" refers to a marked increase in armed engagements, new declarations of war, or major military actions that are distinct and more severe than the ongoing tensions or status quo as of the start of 2024.

  • The resolution will be based on credible and widely recognized international news sources.

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North and South Korea are still officially at war. Does this count? Based on your description it should, imo https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_War

@mariopasquato Although South Korea and North Korea are still at war in law, there haven't been major conflicts since 1954. But, to be clear, I will change the criteria.
I think it would make much more sense to resolve whether there is a "New or significantly escalated military conflict."

@Latte_Horse There’s been shelling that killed a few sk civilians a few years back, some incidents with a nk submarine landing in sk, etc. Not much going on otherwise.

I agree; I remember there was also a minor military incident between SK and NK in 2002.
Thankfully, there haven't been any additional military actions taken afterwards, which didn't escalate into greater military conflict.

Does it have to be a new intervention? Does indirect military aid like selling weapons count?

It would have to be a new intervention.
Currently, it seems obvious that North Korea is aiding Russia, while South Korea is aiding Ukraine.

@Latte_Horse Would North Korea have to send troops to Ukraine for North Korea to resolve Yes?

In the context of the question regarding military conflict in East Asia, North Korea sending troops to Ukraine would not resolve 'Yes' for North Korea. The question specifically pertains to conflicts within the East Asian region. Therefore, North Korean involvement in a conflict outside of this geographical scope, such as in Ukraine, would not meet the criteria for a 'Yes' resolution.

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