Will the New York Times write a non-negative article specifically about Georgism in 2023?
resolved Nov 12

Companion market for this one:

The other one resolves if there's an article that just mentions a key term in a neutral or positive light. For THIS market, it will only resolve "Yes", if, by December 31 2023, 11:59:59 PM CT, at least one article has appeared on the New York Times where Georgism, Land Value Tax, or Henry George, is the actual central subject of the article in question.

For instance, if they just run an article about say, YIMBYism, and they happen to briefly mention Georgism in passing, that's not enough. If Georgism, LVT, or Henry George is in the headline itself, that obviously resolves "Yes." It will be a judgment call if it's, say, an article about the housing crisis and Georgism/LVT/etc is a major lens that the article uses for its analysis. The key determinant will be how much of the article the concept of Georgism or the personage of Henry George is actually central to -- it has to be at least 50%.

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predicted NO

brutal. I thought it was very unlikely since there were 2 months left, and the base rate was once every several years.

predicted YES

Not exactly related, but can anyone link to or give me some good argument for Georgism? I've heard a lot about it but I keep being confused about how exactly it's supposed to be solving the housing problem or how the hell are you even supposed to be putting a value on land independently of whatever development is on it?

predicted YES

@Shump I’ve written some articles at www.gameofrent.com

More to come in the future, including an in depth research paper on land assessment, which is now my full time day job.

bought Ṁ1,000 of YES
bought Ṁ30,000 of YES

@Shump Resolves YES

predicted YES

Congratulations @LarsDoucet! Big day for your book and Georgism.

predicted YES

@jgyou Thanks!

predicted NO

why this market surging? has the article appeared?


@LarsDoucet I hope this is insider trading!

bought Ṁ120 of NO

would obituaries count?

predicted YES

@LinchuanZhang Got an example? I suppose if Georgism was central to the obit. I’d have to see it to be sure.

predicted YES

@LinchuanZhang Okay yeah, an obit for someone like Gaffney who devoted his life to the movement would surely count. (I believe that’s from several years ago, right?)

A toss up would be someone like Joseph Stiglitz - he proved the Henry George theorem, but Georgism isn’t as central to him as it was to Gaffney, so it would depend on what the writer put their focus on.