The title could use some work, please help. Anyway, from Wikipedia:
Person of the Year (called Man of the Year or Woman of the Year until 1999)[1] is an annual issue of the American news magazine and website Time featuring a person, a group, an idea, or an object that "for better or for worse ... has done the most to influence the events of the year".
Will any person of the year selected between 2023 (inclusive) and 2030 (inclusive) clearly have been selected for doing the most to influence the events of the year "for worse"? Hitler would be a major past example.
The wikipedia article also notes:
as a result of the public backlash it received from the American audience for naming Khomeini Man of the Year in 1979, the magazine's editors have since shied away from using figures who are controversial in the United States for commercial reasons, fearing reductions in sales or advertising revenue.
Note: Donald Trump in 2024 did not resolve this YES. He was chosen for being the president-elect, and the coverage wasn't unambiguously and overwhelmingly negative.
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@benshindel Thanks for pinging me. I forgot about this question, and I feel by having left it open I kind of implied Trump didn't count. It looks like nobody bought NO after the announcement, though, so I'm not too worried about that.
I guess my most recent comment implies I would count Trump if the issue is "unambiguously and overwhelmingly negative" about him. I haven't read the issue myself, so I guess I will do that sometime soon to check.
Alternatively, if @Joshua thinks this can unambiguously resolve YES, I will defer to him.
@benshindel
ChatGPT 40, after having read this and the market description + comments, thinks that this should remain open.
@justifieduseofFallibilism Sorry, only seeing this now. Hmm. I think they basically always do the US president when there's a new one, so if you look at the counterfactual, they didn't really select him based on his negative influence, just his POTUSness. Still, if the coverage in that issue was unambiguously and overwhelmingly negative, I think I'd be inclined to count it.
Open to other people's thoughts. Another option would be to exclude the new-POTUS-who-this editions entirely for this market.
@jskf It's funny how Trump Prosecutors are one of the top choices (finalists) for Time's POTY
Only negative things being said about him here