Will the New York Times write a non-negative article that mentions Georgism in 2023, even in passing?
1.4k
resolved Aug 3
Resolved
YES

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31 2023, 11:59:59 PM CT, at least one article has appeared on the New York Times that mentions the word "Georgism", "Henry George", or "Land Value Tax", in a neutral or positive light.

Jan 5, 9:41pm: Will the New York Times write a non-negative article about Georgism in 2023 → Will the New York Times write a non-negative article about Georgism in 2023?

Jan 9, 8:11pm: Will the New York Times write a non-negative article about Georgism in 2023? → Will the New York Times write a non-negative article that mentions Georgism in 2023?

Jan 9, 8:16pm: Will the New York Times write a non-negative article that mentions Georgism in 2023? → Will the New York Times write a non-negative article that mentions Georgism in 2023, even in passing?

Get Ṁ600 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ986
2Ṁ226
3Ṁ218
4Ṁ204
5Ṁ105
Sort by:
predicted YES

“Both Miller and Atkinson advocate friendshoring of critical parts, which is switching to suppliers based in nations that are reliable allies. That’s economically efficient, since it’s been known since the time of Adam Smith and David Ricardo that everyone wins when countries specialize in what they’re best at rather than erect protectionist barriers and try to do everything alone. Henry George, the great 19th-century economist, wrote, “What protection teaches us is to do to ourselves in time of peace what enemies seek to do to us in time of war.”

Thanks to those who linked this below. Mentions Henry George with the word “great” and in support of the author’s argument. Positive valence.

predicted NO

What am I missing that makes this such high confidence?

predicted NO

@ConnorMcCormick only Manifold bias

predicted NO

@Zardoru manifold loves georgism (me too) but I'm suspicious the rest of the world does. Plus, doesn't georgism have its own weaknesses?

bought Ṁ100 of YES

@ConnorMcCormick One reference in the entire newspaper is a low bar to clear. And YIMBYism is so big among the type of young people who will be thought leaders in 2035 that I think it's only a matter of time before it's mainstream.

sold Ṁ22 of NO

@MichaelWheatley I'm convinced :)

predicted YES

What Michael said. Also this resolution criteria would resolve YES if they print 100 hit pieces against it but also one alongside the lines of “seems fine I guess”

Mostly a test market for how salient the movement is. If it can’t clear this low bar, it’s still pretty obscure

bought Ṁ50 of YES

@LarsDoucet Would you consider altering the criteria or the title so they match more closely? The description is more lenient than I would expect from reading the title: "article that mentions" vs. "article about."

predicted YES

@MichaelWheatley I’ll make the title match and I can spin up an alternate stricter market that requires it as the main subject matter (so a YIMBY article that mentions it in passing wouldn’t count)

predicted YES

@LarsDoucet Companion market where the concepts have to be central. This one is now clarified to cover whether any of the concepts are mentioned even in passing.

https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-the-new-york-times-write-a-non-928093402cd3

More related questions