2023 population of Texas: approx. 31 million (+2 million since 2020)

2023 population of California: approx. 39 million (roughly same as 2020)

Just using those rates, that means Texas would have a population of roughly 35-36 million in 2030, compared to California's 39 million. There's reasons to expect a slowdown in growth in Texas too, i.e. socially regressive policies driving people away.

I don't think this resolves YES without an asteroid hitting L.A. or the Bay Area.

@evergreenemily I agree. So I created a question on the same topic more likely to resolve positively: https://manifold.markets/adssx/california-exodus-will-california-l