From www.census.gov:
Population Estimates, July 1, 2022, (V2022)
California: 39,029,342
Texas: 30,029,572
Population estimates base, April 1, 2020, (V2022)
California: 39,538,245
Texas: 29,145,428
Population, percent change - April 1, 2020 (estimates base) to July 1, 2022,
California: -1.3%
Texas: 3.0%
Question will resolve based on US Census figures. If at any point before final 2030 census numbers the population of Texas should exceed that of California, the question resolves YES. If the two states' populations are tied, the question resolves NO.
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Related question I've just created: https://manifold.markets/adssx/california-exodus-will-california-l
(I think it's more likely than Texas overtaking California)
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