Will Texas pass California in population by 2030?
Standard
22
Ṁ910
2031
19%
chance

From www.census.gov:
Population Estimates, July 1, 2022, (V2022)

California: 39,029,342

Texas: 30,029,572

Population estimates base, April 1, 2020, (V2022)

California: 39,538,245

Texas: 29,145,428

Population, percent change - April 1, 2020 (estimates base) to July 1, 2022,

California: -1.3%

Texas: 3.0%

Question will resolve based on US Census figures. If at any point before final 2030 census numbers the population of Texas should exceed that of California, the question resolves YES. If the two states' populations are tied, the question resolves NO.

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predicts NO

Related question I've just created: https://manifold.markets/adssx/california-exodus-will-california-l

(I think it's more likely than Texas overtaking California)