Will a Democratic presidential candidate win Texas before 2033?
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Will any Democrat win the plurality of statewide votes in Texas in any presidential general election occuring before 2033? Or, if Texas adopts some other voting method, like RCV, will a Democrat win via that method?
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are we talking only a plurality of the popular vote or would you also accept winning the electoral votes
@angeluspolitian If Texas uses a different voting method than plurality to assign electoral votes, then I would go by that method instead. Unless you're getting at the case where Texas eliminates voting altogether and uses some undemocratic method of assigning electoral votes?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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