This market resolves YES if the "Europe Now!" party wins the largest share in the 2023 Montenegrin parliamentary election, forms a ruling government, and gets the Prime Ministership.
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Hmmm, looks like there's some sticking points on the coalition forming:
https://balkaninsight.com/2023/08/28/montenegro-pm-designates-govt-negotiations-lack-transparency-president-warns/
So I'm going to keep this market open until the end of the year, and to clarify the resolution criteria:
YES if a ruling coalition is formed with the current prime minister
NO if a new election is called
Not sure how i'll resolve if the current prime minister is replaced but a coalition is eventually formed without calling for a new election -- I guess it would still be yes? Maybe? Feedback?
They just declared victory, but this market won't resolve until:
- Election results are certified and Europe Now has the largest share
They form a ruling government
They get the prime ministership
These just have to be announced officially, e.g. the PM doesn't have to be actually sworn in for the resolution to trigger.