Will "Europe Now!" win the 2023 Montenegrin parliamentary election?
7
69
150
resolved Dec 6
Resolved
YES

This market resolves YES if the "Europe Now!" party wins the largest share in the 2023 Montenegrin parliamentary election, forms a ruling government, and gets the Prime Ministership.

Get Ṁ1,000 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ73
2Ṁ3
3Ṁ2
4Ṁ0
Sort by:
predicted YES

Hmmm, looks like there's some sticking points on the coalition forming:
https://balkaninsight.com/2023/08/28/montenegro-pm-designates-govt-negotiations-lack-transparency-president-warns/

So I'm going to keep this market open until the end of the year, and to clarify the resolution criteria:

YES if a ruling coalition is formed with the current prime minister

NO if a new election is called

Not sure how i'll resolve if the current prime minister is replaced but a coalition is eventually formed without calling for a new election -- I guess it would still be yes? Maybe? Feedback?

predicted YES

They just declared victory, but this market won't resolve until:

- Election results are certified and Europe Now has the largest share

  • They form a ruling government

  • They get the prime ministership

These just have to be announced officially, e.g. the PM doesn't have to be actually sworn in for the resolution to trigger.