Will the Georgian Dream party win the election?
Basic
16
Ṁ2555
Jan 2
83%
chance

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cqj0l8rpvelo

Georgians are voting today in a high-stakes election concerning their future in Europe.

The market will resolve as YES if the Georgian Dream party remains in power. Resolution may be postponed as long as the election's outcome remains unclear.

Update:
I have not and will not bet in this market.

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https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/georgias-electoral-authority-announces-official-results-as-georgian-dream-secures-89-seats-in-parliament/3395486

The Georgian electoral authority on Saturday announced the official results of the country's general elections, with the ruling party Georgian Dream winning 89 seats in the 150-seat parliament after receiving 53.93% of the vote on October 26.
...
Georgia has a parliamentary system, meaning any party that secures the most votes will form the new government.

Representatives of the Georgia Dream Party earlier said do not plan to make any changes to the government and that all ministers will retain their positions.

They have a majority from election that is clearly 'winning the election'. If public protests throw them out of power before or after government "formed/inaugurated", I would say they won election and subsequently lost power. Still waiting for inauguration if there is such a thing may be sensible even if I am not sure it is necessary on above logic. (This is only after their electoral commission has confirmed vote results as has happened as indicated by linked article.)

@ChristopherRandles In the market description, I narrowly defined 'winning' as remaining in power following the election, not merely securing a parliamentary majority. In parliamentary democracies, inauguration is not a mere formality but a critical step for legally and practically assuming power. Until the inauguration occurs, the Georgian Dream Party retains power based on their previous election victory, much like Biden remains in power now due to the 2020 election.

While the Georgian electoral authority announced that the Georgian Dream Party won 89 seats in the 150-seat parliament, this alone does not confer the authority to govern under my definition. The opposition’s absence appears to have delayed the inauguration, preventing the formation of a new government. Consequently, the outcome still remains unclear at this stage.

For transparency, I'll add to the market description that I have not and will not bet in this market.

How does this resolve if elections are redone?

@Siebe The market resolves as YES if the Georgian Dream party remains in power, also in the case that the elections are redone. It must however be inaugurated as the new government, which, as far as I can see, hasn't yet happened.

https://oc-media.org/georgian-dream-revives-threats-of-banning-rivals/

The opposition is apparently doing everything in its power to prevent the inauguration, refusing to attend and demanding a redo of the vote. The Georgian Dream party may instead pursue banning the opposition by appealing to the Constitutional Court, which has recently shown full support for the party.

I will consider the Georgian Dream party to have remained in power once they are inaugurated as the new government, even if they are quickly overturned. Typically, the inauguration happens a few weeks after the election, but likely due to the protests, there is no planned date for now

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce314y70lnpo

Although the Central Election Commission has declared the Georgian Dream party the victorious party, the election results are disputed. The opposition has not conceded, making it not entirely clear whether the party will stay in power.

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