This market resolves to the first year in which an AI with the following capabilities is proven to exist:
A writer is able to create a comic book / graphic novel entirely by themselves without having to rely on a separate illustrator (only one human works on this project, not including the team that made the AI models & tools used by the one human).
The author should provide input in the form of a script: this includes visual directions regarding composition, subject matter, shot by shot plot events, etc, as well as dialogue, "stage directions", etc.
The author may optionally provide model sheets for their characters. This is the only allowed visual input to the system. Everything else must be generated based on text descriptions alone.
The outputted illustrations should take no more than 10% of the human labour time that went into the writing. (The writer may make some slight retouches in Photoshop, but may not functionally double as the illustrator).
The art may be in any style, and color is optional, but the visual quality must be at least on par with that of your average shonen jump manga. This is highly subjective, but I will use my best judgment.
The characters must be distinctive and must stay consistently on-model throughout the piece.
The art style must remain consistent throughout in both style and quality.
The work must be at least 16 pages in length.
The work must have a non-trivial amount of lettered writing (including dialogue) on every page.
The outputted art must coherently match the writing provided by the author. (If a layperson were to see the script and the final comic side by side, they would agree they matched)
UPDATE: If you think this is going to happen in 2023, you can bet on which month it will happen in here:
https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/how-long-until-a-writer-can-use-ai-a81595ef48d6
1,000
3.00@LarsDoucet Tested it out and this was nowhere near my prompt:
Prompt: "An American software engineer isekai'ed as a powerful undead lich."
@L There's an upper and lower limit to the year. The lower limit is 2023. If it looks like we need a tighter timeline than this, I'll post another market that is just multiple choice for years in 2023.
@L Here, you can pick a month in 2023 if you think it will happen in 2023, here:
https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/how-long-until-a-writer-can-use-ai-a81595ef48d6
@citrinitas I need to know more about the process, can you tell me how many of the above criteria seem to be satisfied by this?
@LarsDoucet Sure, give me a bit. I mainly scanned for "16 pages + consistent style" but I can dig in a bit more to see if anyone is saying how their process works.
Given that they're using midjourney, they're almost certainly not simply uploading a script. It likely takes a lot of prompting + a bit of manipulation at the end
@citrinitas Yeah I imagine right now it's speeding up the art process a ton, but still falls short of the spirit of my market which is, to a first approximation, "you could write the same directions you'd hand off to a human illustrator, but have the AI draw your stuff instead." I also would imagine they've got a decent amount of "off model" errors mixed in there.
@LarsDoucet I’ve been using AI art for some game assets and writing help already, and I’m really bullish about its future, but I don’t think the workflow is going to fit your description.
Q: What if there was an AI that fit your description, but only worked for a specific style/characters/setting? Like, you could produce a comic with just a script, but it could only feature characters from a specific list (which the model has presumably been fine-tuned on). Would that count?
@EMcNeill I think that would probably fit the criteria, sure. As long as the quality is good enough and it meets the other criteria, I don't think the criteria as listed requires that you be able to do any style you want, just that any style is acceptable for resolution.