Detroit LVT: Will the city acquire a bunch of blighted properties it can't afford to tear down? (2028)
1
70Ṁ10
2029
59%
chance

Detroit is planning on an LVT project. It still has to pass a few legislative hurdles, but Mayor Duggan is pushing hard. You can read all about it here:
https://www.economist.com/united-states/2023/10/05/detroit-wants-to-be-the-first-big-american-city-to-tax-land-value

This market resolves N/A if the LVT project is not implemented by the expiration date.


This market is one of a series of markets based on the very confident predictions found in the Marginal Revolution comments section on the subject (mostly, but not always, about how it will fail). I'm turning each of these into a market. (Group link for all these markets)


Commenter Thanatos Savehn:

I lived in a city of 100k that did something much like this. It wound up owning large amounts of land it couldn't afford to maintain upon which sat crumbling buildings it couldn't afford to tear down. Thanks to a powerful congressman and Uncle Sam's largesse it was all turned into a series of parks over the next two decades. Now it's an office cluster during the day and zombieland after dark. All retail is gone and just one sandwich shop remains. To escape the failing schools what's left of the professional class has moved to the ex-urbs just beyond the adjacent county line.

Two years after the project is implemented, this market resolves YES if:

  • The average amount of blighted properties has not gone down, or has increased

  • The amount of city owned properties that are blighted has not gone down, or has increased

  • Either a city official is quoted as saying they can't afford to tear down the crumbling buildings on land they own, or an analysis of the city's financials plausibly shows this is the case

Otherwise it resolves NO

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