Detroit LVT: Will Detroit's decline clearly reverse? (2028)

Detroit is planning on an LVT project. It still has to pass a few legislative hurdles, but Mayor Duggan is pushing hard. You can read all about it here:

This market resolves N/A if the LVT project is not implemented by the expiration date.

This market is one of a series of markets based on the very confident predictions found in the Marginal Revolution comments section on the subject (mostly, but not always, about how it will fail). I'm turning each of these into a market. (Group link for all these markets)

Commenter PHinton:

Yes, indeed. Detroit's last republican mayor took office in 1957, and left in 1962. Since 1962, there have been 8 democrat mayors. And each one had a plan for getting things back on track. 61 years. And with every mayor, the city has seems have been unable to stop the downward spiral.

In you aren't familiar with Detroit, watch the video below. These houses were the homes of working men and managers when Detroit was the manufacturing center of the world in the 50's and 60's. The city doesn't even have the money to tear them down now. And so they sit and rot.

A tweak of property taxes will not fix this.

Two years after the implementation of the LVT project, if Detroit is showing unambiguous and uncontroversial signs of reversed decline (including but not limited to: increasing population, lower per capita crime rates, increasing median income, increasing rates of development and infill), this market resolves YES. Otherwise it resolves NO. If it's ambiguous or controversial, then it's not "unambiguous and uncontroversial" and still resolves NO.

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