Detroit LVT: Will 90% of vacant land be abandoned rather than sold? (2028)

Detroit is planning on an LVT project. It still has to pass a few legislative hurdles, but Mayor Duggan is pushing hard. You can read all about it here:

This market resolves N/A if the LVT project is not implemented by the expiration date.

This market is one of a series of markets based on the very confident predictions found in the Marginal Revolution comments section on the subject (mostly, but not always, about how it will fail). I'm turning each of these into a market. (Group link for all these markets)

Commenter Yancey Ward:

This will fail spectacularly. Land is vacant in Detroit because it is unprofitable to build anything of value on it since the costs of building will exceed by a large margin the market value of the new construction. Detroit is a shithole.

All that is going to happen is that all the vacant land not already owned by the city will simply be abandoned to the city rather than pay the tax on worthless land. Most of the owners would have sold long ago were there any buyers of such land.

If 90% of the vacant land not already owned by the city is abandoned to the city, this market resolves YES.

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