Detroit LVT: Will newly city-owned properties experience less development than they have in prior years? (2028)
3
16
1.2K
2029
61%
chance

Detroit is planning on an LVT project. It still has to pass a few legislative hurdles, but Mayor Duggan is pushing hard. You can read all about it here:
https://www.economist.com/united-states/2023/10/05/detroit-wants-to-be-the-first-big-american-city-to-tax-land-value

This market resolves N/A if the LVT project is not implemented by the expiration date.


This market is one of a series of markets based on the very confident predictions found in the Marginal Revolution comments section on the subject (mostly, but not always, about how it will fail). I'm turning each of these into a market. (Group link for all these markets)


Commenter Oldcurmudgeon:

> as owners abandon them to tax sales

That’s probably the goal here. The question is, what will the city do with the vacants it will soon own?

Probably less than the current owners…

Two years after the implementation of the LVT project, if the average rate of development on properties that the city acquired after the LVT project was implemented, is LESS than the average rate of development for the same parcels over the previous two years, this market resolves YES. Otherwise it resolves NO.

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