Detroit LVT: If the plan fails will Detroit not be any worse off? (2028)

Detroit is planning on an LVT project. It still has to pass a few legislative hurdles, but Mayor Duggan is pushing hard. You can read all about it here:

This market resolves N/A if the LVT project is not implemented by the expiration date.

This market is one of a series of markets based on the very confident predictions found in the Marginal Revolution comments section on the subject (mostly, but not always, about how it will fail). I'm turning each of these into a market. (Group link for all these markets)

Commenter Guy Downs:

Excellent post. I think this is mostly about incentivizing development in the midtown area (and proximate neighborhoods), and not so much with trying to develop the east side, which still has a long ways to go before its economically viable.

Lofts in midtown are fetching $2k a month; there's reason to believe giving developers a kick to build more in that general area is a decent plan.

Also-- and this is important-- if the plan fails the downside is fairly limited.

If the following conditions are met, this market resolves YES, otherwise it resolves NO.

  • The general consensus seems to be that the LVT program "failed"

  • The general consensus seems to be that Detroit is not any worse off than it was before

This will be in my sole and admittedly subjective judgement. If people think I'm too biased, in the event this isn't crystal clear at resolution time I'll be happy to turn resolution over to Manifold staff or another arbiter.

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