This entire market is contingent on Twitter "collapsing." See below for a definition of "collapse." If Twitter doesn't "collapse," then this market resolves as N/A.
IF twitter "collapses," then I posit that there will not be a SINGLE widely reocgnized successor that emerges within two years. A SINGLE widely recognized successor is defined as a platform that is A) broadly similar in design and presentation to twitter (chiefly, the "flat" public-by-default social network design where anyone can tag anyone and it's not siloed into subgroups like discord and reddit are) and B) has at least 50%+1 of the peak daily or monthly active user count that Twitter had in 2022.
If there are 0 widely recognized successors, this market resolves YES.
If there is exactly 1 widely recognized successor, this market resolves NO.
If there is exactly 1 widely recognized successor, but it's design is not substantially similar to twitter (for instance, it's internally siloed instead of "flat"), this market resolves YES.
If there are N widely reocgnized successors, but no single one of them has 50%+1 of user mindshare that Twitter did, and N is > 1, then this market resolves YES.
If there are N widely reocgnized successors, and MORE THAN ONE has 50%+1 of user mindshare that Twitter did, and N is > 1, then this market resolves YES.
If twitter doesn't "collapse", this market resolves N/A.
What does "collapse" mean? Informally I'm defining it as being much less popular than it is now, in my sole opinion.
I'm open to suggestions on a more formal definition which I will finalize within the first 3 days of this market opening, but here's loosely where I'm at:
Has a reduction in total users of X% (25%? 50%?)
Has a reduction in TOP users of X% (25%? 50%?). TOP defined as the most active 10% of posters.
And probably going with daily active or monthly active users here. If they don't disclose, we'll use proxy stats or our best educated guess. If it happens I feel like it should be obvious, but Musk has burned me on that score before.
#Elon #ElonMusk #Musk #Twitter #Social #Internet
Related questions
The collapse is already happen, people I know are moving to ShlinkedIn - https://www.shlinkedin.com/home so I don't know why so high on this market is YES?
@kazoo Do you think ShlinkedIn will be the successor? This is the first I've heard of it. In the last 48 hours I've heard like 5 different popular exit destinations.
@kazoo You should also make a separate market predicting the rise of Shlinkedin :)
@LivInTheLookingGlass So Mastodon is inherently federated. This is essentially a siloed design if you take the ENTIRETY of the Mastodon stack together. You would need to show that one single Mastodon instance where any user within it can broadly interact with any other user within it, is, all by itself, the widely recognized twitter successor. If merely the constellation of the fediverse in general is the successor, that does not count if no individual "flat" non-siloed instance is big enough.