Will there be a nuclear disaster at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in 2023?
Dec 31

Counts as any event which results in unsafe levels of radiation leaking from the plant. Can clarify definitions in comments.

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Primer avatar

If IAEA said "An unsafe level of radiation was leaked outside the South entrence of the plant last Tuesday. It is now contained. No persons recieved an unsafe level of radiation." this would resolve yes?

LachlanMunro avatar
Lachlan Munropredicts NO

@Primer no. Let's say someone other than people working at the plant need to evacuate.

Primer avatar

@LachlanMunro So this resolves like the ACX market, but for Zaporizhzhia only?

nickten avatar

shorter timeline version

JamesRomeril avatar
James Romerilbought Ṁ10 of NO

How would “unsafe levels of radiation” be confirmed?

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardspredicts YES

@JamesRomeril IAEA has been present on site as recently as this week. So probably from them.

LachlanMunro avatar
Lachlan Munropredicts NO

Yes, levels over some internationally recognised threshold reported by a legitimate organisation.

ThomasTwenhoven avatar
Thomas Twenhöven

@LachlanMunro This definition seems to at odds with the qualifer "disaster" in the title - some minor theoretically dangerous release is hardly a disaster

LachlanMunro avatar
Lachlan Munropredicts NO

@ThomasTwenhoven to clarify, levels somewhere that require people to evacuate or vacate an area, not including plant employees working at the plant.

ElliotDavies avatar
Elliot Daviesbought Ṁ10 of YES

ISW: "Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Head Kyrylo Budanov warned on June 23 that Russia has finished preparations for an attack on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP)."

"Budanov stated that Russian forces have mined the ZNPP’s cooling pond and have moved vehicles loaded with explosives to four of the six ZNPP power units."