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Resolves NO. Couldn't find evidence by googling "nuclear power plant ukraine evacuation"

@oh "No evidence" is as good as we'll get for most of these markets.

If you are unsure what evacuation might look like, and how evacuation could be confirmed you might prefer to compete in this market: https://manifold.markets/JamesRomeril/will-an-attack-on-the-znpp-zaporizh?r=SmFtZXNSb21lcmls

Will an attack on the ZNPP (Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station) be reported by mainstream news media in 2023

71% chance. Any news coming from any one of: • The New York Times • The Wall Street Journal • The Washington Post • ABC • CNN • Fox That reports of an attack on the power plant will resolve yes. Things that are insufficient to resolve yes alone: • An evacuation order being issued (i.e, pre…

Zelensky warns Russia planning 'nuclear terror attack' to unleash massive radiation leak at Zaporizhzhia plant | The Sun

Good chance Zelenskyy orders evacuations if he truly believes this.

@BTE Interesting. You think this ought to (will) resolve YES if an evacuation is ordered preemptively because of a threat? I see how that could be interpreted as “require”; not how I interpreted it previously.

VERY HIGH chance of precautionary evacuation after the Russians blow damn for reservoir used primarily for cooling reactors. A cut to plant power right now for extended period would mean nuclear disaster and maybe immediate ceasefire?? Putin is SO DESPERATE, this might be his only non-horrible option left folks. In the immortal words of the great Samuel L Jackson from Jurassic Park just before killing the power to the entire park, “hold onto your butts”!!

This is way underpriced considering Putin’s limited strategic options. He needs to force a ceasefire to regroup. This is one way that might work. They have already blown the damns so it’s one of the few left.

What am I missing that this hasn't moved at all with recent news?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/05/08/europe/zaporizhzhia-evacuations-ukraine-russia-intl-hnk/index.html?bshm=bshqp/2

@LachlanMunro From what I understand it looks like that evacuation has nothing to do with the actual power plant. I would still like more clarification on resolution requirements.

Yeah, no, that’s way too high, even if it’s possible to get a rather ticky-tacky evaluation to count, and Metaculus agrees down at 20%. I bought M500 of NO bringing this down to 32%. I’m highly confident the first half of that was right, the second half might not be depending on exact details of what ultimately would have counted.

- Zvi Mowshowitz

I'm uncertain here, but this about right? There have been (IIRC) 2 nuclear plant scares so far and at least once >25 citizens have been evacuated.

The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant is still held by the Russians, so there seems some chance this happens again.

Institute for the Study of War map https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375

As an aside, what's a market system that encourages us to share information like this?