Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if resident doctors (formerly known as junior doctors) in the United Kingdom initiate a nationwide strike (England, Wales, Scotland or NI) at any point before December 31, 2025. The primary source for resolution will be official announcements from the British Medical Association (BMA) or credible news outlets reporting on such industrial action.

Background

In May 2025, the BMA announced plans to ballot resident doctors in England for potential strike action over pay disputes. The ballot is scheduled to open on May 27 and close on July 7, 2025. This follows a previous agreement in September 2024, where resident doctors accepted a 22.3% pay rise over two years to address concerns over pay erosion since 2008. Despite this, the BMA continues to advocate for full pay restoration to 2008 levels by 2027. (theguardian.com)