Which one do you prefer on Manifold, question with
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resolved Mar 24
simple resolve criteria
sophisticated resolve criteria
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As simple as possible but as sophisticated as necessary.
The goal should be the that after the event it is objectively clear how the market should resolve.
Prediction markets should be used for predicting the outcome of interesting real-world future events, instead of predicting whether some random person decides to click on a YES or NO button.
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