Which movies will win an Oscar? (2026)
41
Ṁ13kṀ34k
Mar 14
98.4%
One Battle After Another
96%
Marty Supreme
94%
Sinners
90%
KPop Demon Hunters
84%
Hamnet
82%
Frankenstein
79%
Avatar: Fire and Ash
66%
Sentimental Value
59%
Wicked: For Good
53%
The Secret Agent
40%
It Was Just An Accident
29%
Bugonia
28%
Train Dreams

  • The 98th Academy Awards—currently scheduled for March 15th, 2026—will honor movies released in 2025.

  • Each movie that wins at least one competitive Oscar (there are expected to be 24 such categories in 2026) resolves YES.

  • This market may close before the ceremony.

OSCARS 2026 DASHBOARD

Market context
Culture
Entertainment and Pop Culture
TV & Movies
Oscars
Oscars 2026
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

Avatar might get one

bought Ṁ1,000 YES

@Tripping added. i originally left it out because i tried to avoid options that were equivalent to the result of a single category (e.g., i won't add random documentaries). but avatar 3 has at least a plausible shot to get other noms, so i added it for completeness (even though its probability here is basically equivalent to its vfx odds).

People are also trading

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy