Will GPT-4 release before March?
12
20
270
resolved Mar 14
Resolved
YES

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predicted NO

@DavidChee This one also needs a re-resolution, GPT-4 was not released before March. (It was on March 14th.)

predicted YES

@IsaacKing I think it's pretty reasonable that this new user made a mistake in asking his question and meant end of march given he asked it on the 13th

predicted NO

@MarcusAbramovitch Sure, and their mistake should be fixed. They chose not to fix it, so I'm asking the Manifold admins.

@IsaacKing hmm undecided what to do about this one, will see what others think.

I dont want to punish a non-native speaker who made the market mid march and set a closing date for the end of march. If we then interpret it how you do it wasnt a prediction and should just be n/a'd. But I assume many people were trading with the understanding they meant by the end of March with how many ppl bought yes.

predicted NO

@DavidChee I agree that we shouldn't be too harsh on non-native English speakers in general, but this one also chose not to clarify or respond to any concerns brought up by their traders, so I think they lose the benefit of the doubt.

I think NO is clearly the correct resolution, but given that other traders had apparently been betting on the opposite assumption, I think N/A is reasonable.

bought Ṁ30 of NO

@KhoaPhung3443 Could you please explain why you just resolved this market incorrectly?

It's already March

bought Ṁ15 of YES

@BrendanFinan Market close date is April 1, so I'm guessing that's the idea here.