Will a large government organization be run as a futarchy before 2030?

Politics World Science Robin Hanson Futarchy

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bought Ṁ1,000 YES

https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fo/5cjb04t3pcmmuprkd841p/ANkOfDGm3zwmbjiIFynHUeU?dl=0&e=1&preview=sun+hanson.pdf&rlkey=2wz8jbpjsoe8zi7kjj6ikief1

@Khazar_Man_From_Turan Could you explain how this is a large government organization running as a futarchy

@Bayesian Seconded

@Khazar_Man_From_Turan This document does not give any examples of a large government organization being run as a futarchy.

@PlasmaBallin sorry I thought I linked to specific page. On page 25 Hanson mentions it. He gave more details in the talk

@Khazar_Man_From_Turan Page 25 just refers to metaDAO and "Secretive India‐Based Medical District", are either of those what you resolved this on? What details did he give during the talk?

@jacksonpolack the second one is what I resolve on. He said Punjab healthcare system is using futarchy

@Khazar_Man_From_Turan If that's true, I think it'd be much better to wait to resolve until we have external confirmation other than five words on a slide and what Hanson said in private. The market's end date is 2030, we have plenty of time to properly learn if Punjab's healthcare is run as a futarchy or not!

The slide also says "Futarchy trials", and while I don't know exactly what is happening given only five words, I doubt the "trial" is within the plain meaning of "large government organization run as a futarchy".

Is there a recording of the talk anywhere?

I unresolved the market due to a combination of above factors and you betting the market up before resolving it (creating a strong incentive for creators to interpret markets in their interest)! Not suggesting any bad intent on your part though, it isn't obvious how to run a market well!

@jacksonpolack yeah there isn't a recording. Ok

@Khazar_Man_From_Turan You can re-open it by changing the close date and then quickly sell some of your shares if you want, or reopen it and not sell, up to you

Prediction markets themselves aren't run as futarchies, let alone governments...