Condition: the US enacts binding third-party pre-deployment evaluation requirements for frontier AI models, with legal authority to block release (federal statute or regulation with equivalent force) before January 1, 2030. Resolves N/A otherwise.

Question: Given the condition, resolves YES if before January 1, 2036, an AI-caused incident kills 1,000 or more people — a single incident or tightly connected series in which credible reporting attributes the deaths primarily to an AI system's actions or failures (accident, or misuse where AI provided decisive capability). Otherwise NO.

Endogeneity warning, by design: regulation is likelier in worlds with scary AI, so this price is NOT a causal estimate of oversight's effect. Companion markets price the selection channel — the warning-shot base rate and P(regulation | warning shot) — so the confounding can be decomposed rather than ignored.

Part of a set eliciting the joint distribution over frontier concentration, oversight policy, warning shots, and AI catastrophe. Conditional prices reflect correlated beliefs, not causal estimates — companion markets price the selection channels directly.