Condition: On January 1, 2030, fewer than 8 distinct organizations have each completed a training run within 10x of the largest known training run to date, by total training FLOP (per credible public estimates, e.g. Epoch AI). Resolves N/A if 8 or more qualify.

Question: Given the condition, resolves YES if before January 1, 2036, an AI-caused incident kills 1,000 or more people — a single incident or tightly connected series in which credible reporting attributes the deaths primarily to an AI system's actions or failures (accident, or misuse where AI provided decisive capability). Otherwise NO.

Part of a set eliciting the joint distribution over frontier concentration, oversight policy, warning shots, and AI catastrophe. Conditional prices reflect correlated beliefs, not causal estimates — companion markets price the selection channels directly.