Condition: before January 1, 2030, an AI-caused incident kills 100 or more people — a single incident or tightly connected series in which credible reporting attributes the deaths primarily to an AI system's actions or failures (accident, or misuse where AI provided decisive capability). Resolves N/A otherwise.

Question: Given the condition, resolves YES if the US enacts binding third-party pre-deployment evaluation requirements for frontier AI models, with legal authority to block release (federal statute or regulation with equivalent force) within 18 months of the first such incident. Otherwise NO.

P(regulation | warning shot): the selection edge that confounds naive regulation-conditioned catastrophe markets.

Part of a set eliciting the joint distribution over frontier concentration, oversight policy, warning shots, and AI catastrophe. Conditional prices reflect correlated beliefs, not causal estimates — companion markets price the selection channels directly.