Resolves YES if, before January 1, 2030, the United States enacts binding third-party pre-deployment evaluation requirements for frontier AI models, with legal authority to block release (federal statute or regulation with equivalent force). Voluntary commitments, guidance without blocking authority, or state laws without frontier-release blocking power do not count.

Part of a set eliciting the joint distribution over frontier concentration, oversight policy, warning shots, and AI catastrophe. Conditional prices reflect correlated beliefs, not causal estimates — companion markets price the selection channels directly.