Kevin Akers's calibration
Grade: C+, Score: -4.73
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Kevin Akers bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
- Will Destiny say that JustPearlyThings is decently smart/intelligent by the end of February, 2023?NOṀ10
- Will Destiny say that JustPearlyThings is decently smart/intelligent by the end of February, 2023?NOṀ10
- Will Destiny say that JustPearlyThings is decently smart/intelligent by the end of February, 2023?NOṀ10
20%
30%
50%
- Will Donovan Sharpe Physically Attack OR Threaten Destiny on the night of their debate @ Fresh & Fit?NOṀ10
- Will Donovan Sharpe Physically Attack OR Threaten Destiny on the night of their debate @ Fresh & Fit?NOṀ10
- Will Donovan Sharpe Physically Attack OR Threaten Destiny on the night of their debate @ Fresh & Fit?NOṀ10
60%
70%
80%
- Does Steven "Destiny" Bonnell play Factorio on the next stream available at https://www.youtube.com/destiny?YESṀ10
- Does Steven "Destiny" Bonnell play Factorio on the next stream available at https://www.youtube.com/destiny?YESṀ10
- Does Steven "Destiny" Bonnell play Factorio on the next stream available at https://www.youtube.com/destiny?YESṀ10