Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

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bought Ṁ5 of YES

Given that

  1. Only 8 countries have ever won the world cup (giving a base of 12.5%)

  2. France has won 2 (only Brazil, Argentina, and Germany have more).

  3. France has made finals in 1998, 2006, 2018, 2022, i.e 4 out of the last 7 finals, and won 2 of them, placed 2nd in 2, and placed 3rd in 2 of them (5th in the remaining one).

  4. Have been in finals of 2018 WC (won it), 2020 Euros (won it), 2022 WC (Lost)

I don't like French NT but their squad is coming to maturity and is full of talent more than most competitors. Surely this market should be trading at more than 18-20%

predicts NO

@firstuserhere lots of things can happen between now and 2026. You have to subtract all contingencies. Italy has a great team, won the Euro in 2020 and a year later didn't even qualify for the World Cup. What are the chances that France doesn't qualify, you have to subtract that from your probability. What are the chances that Mbappe is injured for the World Cup?

And even then, what are the chances for Brazil, Argentina, Germany, Spain, England, Belgium, Netherlands and Croatia. If France is above 20%, the remaining 80% has to be split between all those teams (plus all surprise candidates, Morocco for example), that is less than 10% average for those teams, which means that France is more than twice as likely to win compared to those 8 teams. France might be the favorites (arguably, Spain will probably be the stronger than France in 4 years) but never by more than 2x compared to the rest of favorites.

predicts YES

@egroj oh yes sure. However the Italian team is not at all a comparable example given they failed to qualify for WC just before and just after their Euro wins, and key players were the older players in the squad during qualification.

Ofc it can always happen that WC champs don't go further, just look at the curse of the Champion not making it out of the group stage over the last 20 years or so with this year being the exception.

But yeah i see your point. 20% seems fairly upper limit if you discount for the surprise teams (which even if don't win, can take out favourites like 2002, 2022, etc)