This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially scheduled in Ukraine by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war.
A qualifying referendum will be considered to be scheduled once a date for the referendum to take place has been officially scheduled and publicly announced by a relevant Ukrainian government authority with the legal jurisdiction to do so.
Once a qualifying referendum has been scheduled, this market will resolve to “Yes.” Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
1,000In the past week, significant diplomatic activity surrounding a potential peace deal for the Russo-Ukrainian war has emerged, though no specific mention of a scheduled peace referendum by January 31, 2026, has been reported.
Recent news highlights Ukraine and the United States discussing a 20-point peace proposal, with President Zelenskiy outlining key elements like security guarantees and EU membership.
Additionally, diplomatic engagements with U.S. representatives, including talks at Mar-A-Lago, indicate intensified efforts to end the conflict.