Is the "leak" of GPT-4.5 real?

GPT 4.5•Technology•AI•OpenAI•LLMs

603

Ṁ20K

Ṁ1K

Jul 1

chance

ALL

Sam Altman denies the legitimacy of the leak

Dec 14

Multiple reports of suddenly better performance, model referring to itself as 4.5-turbo

Dec 16

https://twitter.com/daniel_nguyenx/status/1735260556892967170

This prediction will resolve yes iff the OpenAI pricing page at: https://openai.com/pricing#language-models is updated with wording and details substantially similar to those in the X post and screenshot linked above.

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predicts NO

A minute of audio costing the same as 200 tokens seems wild and implausible to me. A minute of speech is over 100 words, maybe by a lot, and has more information content (nuance of tone and pauses and accent and so on), plus takes more work to decode. And I'm assuming it would then be fed into the same model, or a comparably capable one, as the text.

@EvanDaniel You are assuming that the audio goes directly into the model, without speech to text. This does not currently happen with GPT 4 audio, and there is no reason to think that it will in their next model. The reason the "leak" was stated this way was to compare with Gemini.

With speech to text, the pricing stated is approximately the same amount per token.

predicts YES

https://twitter.com/VojtechKulhavy/status/1736256418766844414

lots of random people saying that the model is referring to itself as 4.5-turbo, along with better capabilities

predicts YES

@Karu /Mira/has-gpt45-already-started-rolling-o

predicts YES

Why is Mira preparing for war?

predicts NO

@EmilyThomas Oh that's smart. If the screenshot is fake but 4.5 is real, then when 4.5 is announced people might come here and buy this market to 100%, not realizing that this doesn't resolve yes unless the screenshot specifically was authentic.

predicts YES

@Joshua I am now kicking myself for not being very specific on the criteria, but the wording used was "substantially similar" to the screenshot.

bought Ṁ0 of NO

@Karu If the modalities are different from what is advertised(such as not having 3D), is that sufficiently dissimilar?

predicts YES

@MiraI would say that doesn't resolve no, if that (the link to 3D/vision being not there) is the only change.

@Karu That is a pretty giant difference, considering what the leaker was trying to prove.

boughtṀ95YES

@Karu

bought Ṁ95 of YES

@Joshua this is precisely why I haven't resolved it yet. I would not put it past Sam to do something outlandish like releasing basically the screenshot and calling it 4.6 just for laughs.

predicts NO

@Karu I think he's totally trolling us with the vague denial and 4.5 is still coming, but that the screenshot is still fake and it won't have these prices.