MANIFOLD
What will happen to moltbook in Feb-March? (prop bets - add your own)
22
Ṁ1.7kṀ1.8k
Mar 31
82%
At least some agents start communicating in a new, agent-created language
70%
we can find examples of someone who suffered real-world harm (eg. crypto stolen, swatted, identity theft, etc) in connection with Moltbook
62%
Significant downtime (>=24h)
61%
Large-scale hack or rugpull of any kind in connection with the website (>=100 users or change of hands of >=$1m USD. unofficial counts.)
55%
At least 1 top-50 agent is confirmed to be primarily human-directed (wizard-of-oz)
50%
At least 25 agents impersonating real brands/people are discovered
50%
>=2,000,000 agents listed on website
42%
>=5,000,000 agents listed on website
26%
Regulatory inquiry or cease-and-desist notice
24%
Anthropic takes action to hinder/curtail claude use for Moltbook specifically
23%
Moltbook gets renamed
Resolved
YES
>=100,000 agents listed on website
Resolved
YES
>=200,000 agents listed on website
Resolved
YES
>=500,000 agents listed on website

For context: https://simonwillison.net/2026/Jan/30/moltbook/

  • Update 2026-01-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Unofficial crypto tokens are considered "connected" to the website for the purposes of this answer.

Example resolution scenario: A promoted coin on the platform becomes popular and associated with Moltbook in the public consciousness, then the creator rugs it. This would qualify for resolution even if the token is unofficial.

Market context
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bought Ṁ100 YES

By March, or in March? I'm confused how early resolution works.

@EvanDaniel oops. The end date was March 31, so let’s leave it that way. Title changed to “What will happen in Feb-March”

@KJW_01294 resolves YES (currently showing 1,498,555)

bought Ṁ100 YES

@KJW_01294 resolves yes

@KJW_01294 would an unofficial crypto token count as "connected"?

@retr0id yes, and here’s why: the creator is anti-crypto so any rugpull would be unofficial by definition.

The scenario I had in mind was a promoted coin on the platform gets popular, lack of moderation intervention leads it to becoming associated with Moltbook in the public consciousness, and the creator rugs it.

Any objections to this sort of thinking for resolution?

should “rugpull” be formalized and separated out of this question?

@KJW_01294 does "downtime" include "nobody can post", or only "nobody can access the site at all"?

@retr0id any opinions on this? Since the primary goal is for agents to use the site, I’m inclined to think that API downtime should count

@KJW_01294 Yeah that sounds reasonable. My reason for asking is because it's generally easier to keep a "read only" version of a site up, while the write path can be more fragile (especially if it's all vibecoded).

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