Will the new ebola epidemic cause deaths outside Congo before 2031? | Manifold

Will the new ebola epidemic cause deaths outside Congo before 2031?

8

100Ṁ189

2030

53%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Today, September 4th 2025, Congo declared a new ebola epidemic. Will there be deaths due to it declared by governments, officials or reputable health organizations, outside of Congo before 1st Jan 2031?

Update 2025-11-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the outbreak is declared over, the market will resolve NO, regardless of whether deaths occurred outside Congo during the defined scope of the market duration given at market creation.

Get

1,000

to start trading!

Sort by:

@traders I think I need to clarify, that if the outbreak is declared over, my sense is that this market would have to resolve NO.

https://manifold.markets/JussiVilleHeiskanen/is-the-16th-outbreak-of-ebola-virus?r=SnVzc2lWaWxsZUhlaXNrYW5lbg

Is the 16th outbreak of Ebola virus in Democratic Republic of Congo over?

73% chance. If there are 42 days without new cases after the last healed one (released sunday 19th October), World Health Organisation will declare the outbreak over. Are we that lucky?

People are also trading

Is the 16th outbreak of Ebola virus in Democratic Republic of Congo over?

Will more than 100 people in NYC get Ebola in 2025?

Will a pandemic caused by a novel pathogen occur before 2032 and result in the deaths of more than 20 million people?

Will there be over 100,000 global malaria deaths in [each of 2028..2034]?

Will there be another pandemic by the year 2030?

Will Guinea worm disease be eradicated before 2031?

Will the Dancing Plague return before 2030?

Will there be another global pandemic before 2030?

Will the WHO declare another pandemic before 2030?

Will the WHO declare an H5N1 pandemic before 2030?

Related questions

Is the 16th outbreak of Ebola virus in Democratic Republic of Congo over?

Will more than 100 people in NYC get Ebola in 2025?

Will a pandemic caused by a novel pathogen occur before 2032 and result in the deaths of more than 20 million people?

Will there be over 100,000 global malaria deaths in [each of 2028..2034]?

Will there be another pandemic by the year 2030?

Will Guinea worm disease be eradicated before 2031?

Will the Dancing Plague return before 2030?

Will there be another global pandemic before 2030?

Will the WHO declare another pandemic before 2030?

Will the WHO declare an H5N1 pandemic before 2030?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy