This market resolves to the number of G20 nations that implement new capital controls or currency restrictions between market creation and July 1, 2025. These measures must be officially announced and implemented by the government or central bank of the country.
Qualifying measures include:
Restrictions on currency conversion or foreign exchange transactions
Limits on capital outflows or repatriation
Mandatory surrender requirements for export earnings
Fixed or managed exchange rates (newly implemented, not existing ones)
Other similar measures that significantly restrict the free flow of currency
The G20 nations are: Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States, and the European Union.
Sources for resolution will include official government announcements, IMF reports, and reputable financial news sources.
I may trade in this a week after creation.
UPDATE: I think the EU's 18th sanction package restriction of Russia from capital markets counts.
UPDATE: I Don't think Australian antitrust Merger Control Measures count, but am willing to entertain counterarguments.
UPDATE: Likewise the Mexican Merger Control measures are competition oriented and additionally like the Australian ones don't fit the timeframe.
Update 2025-08-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated their strong inclination not to count a US state-level bill (Texas SB 17) that restricts foreign purchases of real estate as a qualifying capital control measure. The reasoning is that including it would unreasonably expand the scope of the market.
Update 2025-08-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has specified that:
Sanctions that only restrict a foreign country's access to capital markets (e.g., EU sanctions on Russia) do not count.
Based on this, the creator has stated the market will resolve to 0.
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@traders In summation and on reflection even the restriction on Russia from capital markets isn't a restriction within the scope of the spirit of the market. Will resolve 0. It seems relaxation was on the cards, not tightening. For now.
I am strongly inclined to hold that Texas bill SB 17 isn't a capital control measure, as that would unreasonably expand the scope of the market. Do say if you disagree so we can reason, but as I said I would need convincing to include SB 17 within the ambit of this market. SB 17 restricts China from buying real estate in Texas and is sold as a National Security issue, and proponents point out that such laws are commonplace elsewhere.