Resolution criteria

The market resolves YES if BRICS nations officially launch a common digital settlement currency for international trade by December 31, 2026. This would involve linking existing national CBDCs (such as India's digital rupee, China's digital yuan, and Russia's digital ruble) through interoperable infrastructure, or launching a unified digital settlement instrument like "The Unit."

The resolution requires an official announcement from BRICS leadership confirming operational launch or formal adoption of a shared digital settlement mechanism for cross-border trade. Pilot programs, research initiatives, or technical development work alone do not qualify. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov clarified in October 2025 that the BRICS Pay system is now targeted for operational status by 2030, which would resolve this market NO if that timeline holds.

Background

BRICS is developing infrastructure to link existing national CBDCs, enabling cross-border payments to be settled directly in national currencies, without passing through correspondent banks or the dollar-centric SWIFT network. The group is developing a digital trade settlement unit, tentatively called "The Unit," aimed at reducing reliance on the U.S. dollar for international trade, backed by gold and a basket of member currencies.

About 90% of commerce among BRICS nations is now settled in local currencies, up from roughly 65% two years ago. On October 31, 2025, researchers launched a pilot to test a gold-anchored settlement "Unit" inside the 10-member BRICS+ bloc, followed by a Unit prototype launched on December 8.

Considerations

The current initiative does not seek to create a single BRICS currency, nor does it require member states to cede monetary sovereignty. Earlier proposals along those lines faltered for divergent inflation regimes, incompatible capital controls, and concerns about dominance of the Chinese yuan. India remains vocally opposed to dedollarization and a common BRICS currency, with Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal stating "It is impossible to think of a BRICS currency". At the July 2025 BRICS Summit in Rio, leaders confirmed that no joint currency would be launched in the near term, instead prioritizing expanding local-currency trade and developing BRICS Pay.

This description was generated by AI.