Trump approval rating 45.0% or higher on April 20th?
267
1kṀ120k
Apr 23
99.6%
chance

Market will resolve to YES if 45.0% or higher of Americans approve of Donald Trump's performance dated April 20th, 2025 on Nate Silver's approval tracker located here at Silver Bulletin: https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin

To account for any lag in aggregation or tracker updating, the data will be checked three days later on April 23rd, 2025.

In the event that the Silver Bulletin tracker is no longer available or updated, the RCP tracker here will be used as a substitute: https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating

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Plz resolve as we are done with April 20th deadline.

@BHS

To account for any lag in aggregation or tracker updating, the data will be checked three days later on April 23rd, 2025.

@dgga got it. Thank you.

Will you be verifying the Apr 20 average on the 23rd, or will the average on Apr 23 be what you use to resolve?

@Jubs above question
Also if there is no new data values over easter weekend, do you use
The value shown for April 20th as it is displayed on 23rd, or
the nearest date that has a new data value, or
The first new data value after April 20th, or
something else (e,g, like first value for 20th shown on 21st.) ?

bought Ṁ1,000 YES

@ChadCotty Similar markets have wiggle room afterwards so that if the percent on the day changes one or more times, the post-day record of what it was will count for disambiguation.

sold Ṁ174 NO

@ChadCotty I will use the value dated for 20th as displayed on the 23rd, since that most accurately reflects how I wrote it. My intent was more about accounting for polls released by the 23rd that reflect data from the 20th… but it turns out that’s not really how the Silver Bulletin graph works, so I don’t think there’s any point in it. Other sites do, so it was written for that. I believe it is most fair to follow exactly as written though, which is a big L for me lol

opened a Ṁ1,000 NO at 30% order

@Panfilo I put some limit orders at 30, feel free to fill them

@Fay42 missed them, but mine at 25 is still up

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