Market will resolve to YES if 45.0% or higher of Americans approve of Donald Trump's performance dated August 1st, 2025 on Nate Silver's approval tracker located here at Silver Bulletin: https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin
Notes:
Data will be checked within 24 hours after market close.
If the approval dips below 45.0% at some point, but rises back above by August 1st, the market will still resolve to YES.
In the event that the Silver Bulletin tracker is no longer available or updated, the RCP tracker here will be used as a substitute: https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating
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@Mrdudeguy Obviously the cycle for this market is basically over, but inflation started rising again. If that trend continues, Trump's approval might take a substantial hit. I don't think the Epstein stuff will have a big impact though, as the conservatives who care about it are a minority of occassional voters and not well-reflected by approval polling.