This market resolves YES if another sovereign country send troops to fight either Russian or Ukrainian troops anywhere (including defending themselves from a new invasion), or if a broader military conflict erupts where Russia and Ukraine take opposite sides. Unrecognized countries do not count.
This market resolves NO if a permanent ceasefire is reached before then and no country has joined.
Update 2025-03-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Intention to Fight Clarification
Intention is Key: Only troop deployments with the explicit purpose of engaging in combat will count as having "sent troops to fight."
Non-Qualifying Deployments: Troops deployed for other reasons (e.g., logistical support or non-combat roles) that later find themselves defending do not meet the criteria.
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@JoshuaWilkes I have. Can you please provide a credible evidence showing I'm wrong? I will resolve this market YES right away in that case.
@JuJumper the North Koreans arrived in Kursk after the Ukrainian incursion there. That is well-documented and if you doubt it I am happy to provide links that demonstrate that timeline.
The example that you have reached for to explain why North Koreans would end up fighting Ukrainians in this war without their own intention to do so is thus already discounted.
I don't want to be too combative, but I don't think, have not seen anywhere, that there is a single analyst or report that believes or states that the North Koreans didn't go there with the express intention of fighting on the frontlines (with the obvious exception of NK soldiers, who like Russians in 2022 were told they were going for exercises.
This is, in my opinion, an easy YES, and it would be better for all parties to acknowledge that.
@JoshuaWilkes I may have missed that. Please provide your links. Also I'm not sure why I deserve being addressed to in such hostile tone.
Kursk offensive starts in early August:
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9d1yx9nwjxo
North Korean soldiers arrive in Kursk in late October:
@mods OP has in my opinion changed resolution criteria to avoid resolving YES. OP also holds a NO position themself.
Current state of evidence does not suggest that North Korea have joined the war. North Korean troops are mostly deployed in Russia's Kursk region, fighting against invading Ukrainian forces there, with no evidence of active involvement in Ukraine proper. Unless further evidence appears (or further involvement escalation happens), this is not yet enough to resolve YES.
@JuJumper Seems to conflict with the market description:
> This market resolves YES if another sovereign country send troops to fight either Russian or Ukrainian troops anywhere
@adele Do we know for sure if they were sent to fight or merely to releive Russian troops from some non-fighting duties?
@JuJumper Market should resolve yes based on how it was worded, even if you now may have wished to have worded it differently.
"This market resolves YES if another sovereign country send troops to fight either Russian or Ukrainian troops anywhere"
There were/are NK troops actively killed and captured during infantry combat.
@JoshuaPhillipsLivingReaso the original wording was "send troops to fight" which implies intention to fight, not just that the fighting did in fact happen. Reports of fighting in Kursk region should not count if the NK troops were deployed there for other reasons and then were defending.