Will Helsinki Halli host a major event by the end of 2024?
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Dec 31
1.6%
chance

Helsinki Halli (formerly known as Hartwall Arena) is a large entertainment/sports venue in Helsinki. It is owned mainly by two Russian businessmen who are on various sanctions lists, which make it difficult for them to do business in Finland. Since March 2022, the arena has not hosted major events. According to some news reports, the owners have been able to pay the taxes and land rent owed, so the arena cannot be repossessed on the basis of missed payments. Some politicians have floated the idea of a special law that would allow repossession of this particular property. According to a news report on November 28, 2023, the next EU sanctions package might include a way to take the property, but Hungary is opposed.

This market resolves to Yes if by the end of 2024 there has been an event at Helsinki Halli (which may possibly have been renamed by then) to which tickets have been sold to the general public and that has had more than one hundred attendees.

In addition to a separate law or new rules in EU sanctions, some ways that this could happen are if the sanctions are lifted, or if the owners surrender the property or manage to sell it despite the sanctions.

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predicts YES

The Mayor of Helsinki says that there is a plausible buyer: https://www.hs.fi/kaupunki/art-2000010068886.html

Presumably the sales price would be placed in escrow for the duration of the sanctions, so the current owner would not receive it at least right away. Now there is a threat that further EU sanctions would create a legal basis for repossession, and a voluntary transaction might be preferable.

predicts YES

A recent news report cites government sources saying that the situation should get resolved during 2024.

The Mayor of Helsinki believes that a repossession or trade is likely: https://www.hs.fi/kaupunki/art-2000010020934.html

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