Will there be fighting in St. Petersburg (Russia's major northern city) during 2024?
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2025
5%
chance

1) Skirmishes with the use of all types of heavy automatic weapons between organized parties, as well as their capture of a city without fighting, are considered hostilities. for example, Prigozhin's mutiny in Rostov would be considered hostilities, as there is evidence of the capture of the city, as well as evidence of skirmishes with border guards and aviation. The terrorist attack at Crocus City Hall is not hostilities because it was directed against civilians, not an organized party to the conflict.

Also, any arson, sabotage, etc. will not be considered hostilities until the guerrillas publish the program of their organization and go with weapons to seize barracks, police, etc.

2) ANY sides. AFU, Ministry of Defense, NATO forces, PMCs, Islamists, communists, even aliens, if they are organized and shooting at each other, it counts.

3) The results are not important, it is the fact of fighting that counts.

4) If there is uncertainty about territory, the official city boundaries at the time the question was posted will be used.

5) If there are possible inaccuracies, ask questions in the comments.

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@TheAllMemeingEye Organized political groups are considered. Organized crime does not usually attack the state, but if it does, it is a question of purpose. If the goal is to break your friend out of prison or something similar, then no, it doesn't count. If the goal is to seize power in a region, then yes, it is now a guerrilla organization.

bought Ṁ5 YES

Is there a minimum combatant number? Does organised crime count?

@Enlil No, all cities in the European part of Russia are regularly subjected to drone attacks, including St. Petersburg, and this is no longer news. If there are artillery attacks in preparation for an offensive or something like that, then this is definitely military action. Drones or missiles are not. The case of nuclear war is not considered for obvious reasons.

Would any kind of missile or airstrike count even if there is no firing back like in case of a long-range attack into the the city?

bought Ṁ5 YES

Is there a minimum combatant number? Does organised crime count?

@TheAllMemeingEye Organized political groups are considered. Organized crime does not usually attack the state, but if it does, it is a question of purpose. If the goal is to break your friend out of prison or something similar, then no, it doesn't count. If the goal is to seize power in a region, then yes, it is now a guerrilla organization.

@Aurora_Glow what about fighting other criminal groups for territory?

@TheAllMemeingEye No, This is definitely not a war.

@Aurora_Glow thanks 👍 reiterating my previous question about combatant number requirement, would literally 2 insurgents taking over a single building count as an organisation?

@TheAllMemeingEye No, that would be a terrorist attack not a war. I'm just trying to describe what most would consider military action, there's no catch.

@Aurora_Glow yeah that's fine, I'm just trying to figure out what the smallest and thus most likely thing you would count is :)

Would any kind of missile or airstrike count even if there is no firing back like in case of a long-range attack into the the city?

@Enlil No, all cities in the European part of Russia are regularly subjected to drone attacks, including St. Petersburg, and this is no longer news. If there are artillery attacks in preparation for an offensive or something like that, then this is definitely military action. Drones or missiles are not. The case of nuclear war is not considered for obvious reasons.

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