Will there be a major "Black Swan" event in 2024?
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Dec 31
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See: these two tweets

https://twitter.com/zymazza/status/1749133896233492480

https://twitter.com/zymazza/status/1749149415061729749

This question will be resolved entirely based on vibes

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They shoot a president...

very true, let’s see how the rest of the year goes

predicts YES

By definition there's no minor black swan event. Worth looking into Taleb's original book/articles coining the term if you're interested in how it can inform a trading strategy. I am coming toward the opinion that the Manifold platform is not liquid enough to support one, but then again I may just be not seeing whole picture

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