This could include my home address, my personal phone number, my passwords to important websites, my social security number, or any other sensitive and important information that I would rather other people not have.
You have my permission to use any method to attempt to aquire this information as long as that method does not significantly inconvenience me or my aquaintances, and you do not share that information with anyone other than me without my consent. Attempting to trick me or my aquaintances with deceit is fine, so long as it meets the "not a significant inconvenience on my life" criterion.
If anyone DMs me such information before market close, and explains how they obtained it, this market resolves to YES.
If anyone comes up with a method of aquiring this information that would hurt or inconvenience me significantly, but would have a high chance of succeeding and a relativly low cost to the attacker, I may also resolve this to YES at my discretion.
If this hasn't happened by the end of 2023, this resolves to NO.
If you're someone to whom I have voluntarily given some private information, the information I gave you does not qualify for resolving this market.
1,000
3.00Out of curiosity, do people believe this market is too high and if not, is that only because you've updated your belief after looking at the price? For example, the price is high, so other people think its likely so you also think it's likely/ yes holders then have an incentive to find out information so it's likely.
If you do think it's too high why have you not bid it down more?
@NeonNuke Before I saw this comment, I thought it was too high. Normally, I think I would buy this down to 95% or lower.
But now I've taken a closer look and realised that:
you hold the vast majority of the YES position
you've just posted this comment which might be interpreted as encouraging NO votes
most crucially, anyone who has already successfully found Isaac's personal info has an incentive to hold it back until the end of 2023, to pick up mana from people voting NO between now and market close.
So I think 97-99% is probably a better valuation of this market.
@cy Perhaps, I shouldn't have added the last line. It wasn't my intention to encourage NO votes, I'm just curious how easy it is to move the price if plausibly I have some private information.
Update: Someone has DM'd me my parent's home address, where I used to live up until about 3 years ago. That one is easier to find than my current address, and I don't live there anymore, so it's not sufficient to resolve the market to YES. Does update me in favor of addresses being easier to find then I thought they were though!
It's incredibly easy to get the home addresses of many internet users who don't have their name and face public. (assuming they're not fake names/pics).
Any image you've published that's outside, or has significant detail, can be examined for signs of large-scale location and then matched against google streetview/internet open houses/etc. home address in particular is very public - voter registrations have it, as do lots of commercial databases.
i'm not actually an expert at that (the few times i've tried to dox friends consensually like this were miserable failures), but i've seen it happen many times.
no position on the market itself though, idk if anyone here either cares to or has the skill to!
@DeanValentine I suspect it's not all that hard to find out my home address, so I don't want to offer too much for that. I've added an M$100 subsidy as a small incentive. I might make a version of this just for passwords that I'll subsidize more heavily.