Update 2024-Jan-06:

I don't think Ukraine counts as "annexed". I therefore resolve this market as NA, and we look to the other market.

Original Criteria

The spirit of the question is more aimed at the full-annexation scenario. If they only annex part of Ukraine and if there is an agreeable way to partially-resolve then I'd be open to that, otherwise NA. This is part of a conditional forecast.

We can use the world bank's GDP numbers. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=UA

We can use the World Bank's GDP deflator to adjust it to 2020 dollars.

ttps://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.DEFL.KD.ZG?locations=UA

Resolution waits until the GDP and deflator numbers for the fiscal year 2030 are published. So, probably some time in 2031.

This question is about Ukraine's GDP given Russian NOT annexing them this year, https://manifold.markets/Jotto999/if-russia-does-not-annex-ukraine-be

And this one is about Ukraine's GDP if they DO annex Ukraine:

https://manifold.markets/Jotto999/if-russia-annexes-ukraine-before-20