Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Zhang Youxia is formally expelled from the Chinese Communist Party before January 1, 2028. Resolution will be determined by official CCP announcements or credible reporting from major international news outlets (Reuters, AP, Bloomberg, BBC, etc.) confirming his expulsion. The expulsion must be explicitly stated as removal from Party membership; demotion, removal from office, or other disciplinary actions alone do not qualify.

Background

Zhang Youxia is a Chinese general in the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and currently the first-ranked vice chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC). In October 2017, Zhang was named as a member of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party and the second-ranking vice chairman of the CCP Central Military Commission. Although expected to retire under the CCP's informal retirement age, Zhang remained on the Politburo following the 20th CCP National Congress in October 2022, and was re-appointed as the first-ranking CMC vice chairman. He was also re-appointed as PRC CMC vice-chairman in March 2023.

Considerations

It's difficult to oust him now because he is a Politburo member, making the process more complicated than removing Central Committee members. Recent reporting suggests significant internal power struggles within the CCP military hierarchy, with some analysts speculating about tensions between Zhang and Xi Jinping. However, expulsion from the Party—as opposed to removal from office—represents a severe and historically rare action against a sitting Politburo member, particularly one controlling military apparatus.