Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Liu Zhenli is officially expelled from the Chinese Communist Party before January 1, 2028. Resolution will be confirmed through official announcements from China's Ministry of National Defense, state media (Xinhua News Agency, CCTV, PLA Daily), or credible international reporting of such an announcement. The market resolves NO if Liu Zhenli remains a party member through December 31, 2027.

Background

Liu Zhenli was commander of the People's Liberation Army Ground Force from June 2021 to December 2022 and currently serves as PLA Chief of Staff and a regular member of the Central Military Commission. Liu belongs to what analysts call the "Vietnam War Faction" and his key promotions occurred under CMC Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia's watch, with their careers built on trust and battlefield camaraderie.

Following the downfall of Miao Hua and He Weidong, remaining CMC members Liu Zhenli and Zhang Shengmin could find themselves on the chopping block. Nine senior military officials were officially expelled from the Chinese Communist Party during the Fourth Plenum of the 20th CCP Central Committee in October 2025, including CMC Vice Chairman He Weidong and CMC member Miao Hua.

Considerations

Liu's position remains precarious in an environment overshadowed by abrupt purges. However, with He Weidong and Miao Hua out of the picture, Liu's ascent looks all but assured, especially as Zhang Youxia consolidates power within the PLA. Liu is part of the "Shaanxi gang," which includes Xi Jinping himself and other senior military figures, potentially providing him some protection. The outcome depends significantly on factional dynamics within the CCP and whether Liu remains aligned with Xi's preferred faction through 2027.